Forum:2011 Pacific hurricane season/Awesome Adrian
01E.ADRIAN Aoi:close to Mexico 20% on NHC. I hope it develops. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 91E.INVEST Invested and up to 30%. Yqt1001 19:09, June 4, 2011 (UTC) :Nice to have some more activity, but the La Nina conditions aren't exactly helping us. I wouldn't be so surprised if this area of storms doesn't develop, and 94L hasn't exactly been getting it's act together either. However, the EPac season is under way, and we should be getting our first storm climatologicaly by now. The last week of May and first week of June is when the EPac starts up. The shear must settle down for us to get some storms developing. I mentioned some facts behind this year's tornado season in 94L's section(not to get off-topic), but if we had such an incredible tornado season, will the hurricane season reflect that? We'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 23:40, June 4, 2011 (UTC) ::...And the invests have died down. It appears we are on to a silent start in both basins. As of now, the tropics are sleeping, and they will wake up in the future at some point. I guess this is it for now. Here is the Atlantic water vapor imagery map from UNISYS, and here is the Pacific one. They have apparently died away, and I wouldn't be surprised if they actually do so soon. :::Too bad, I really wouldn't mind seeing named storms around now. Oh well, I can wait. :) And yeah, I think tornado season reflects the hurricane season. The last tornado here was in 2005, this year there has already been a tornado warning. Granted it was only about 24 hours ago (thought there hasn't been one since 2008). Yqt1001 04:06, June 5, 2011 (UTC) ::::Now at 40%. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 14:05, June 5, 2011 (UTC) :::It still hasn't been getting it's act together so much, and the conditions ahead of it aren't very favorable 1-2 days out. It could become a tropical depression or a tropical storm by chance, but after that, it'll just fall apart due to the dry air out to sea. Ryan1000 16:16, June 5, 2011 (UTC) First red circle of the year! 60% chance of development in the next 48 hours. Yqt1001 18:11, June 5, 2011 (UTC) :I didn't expect it to jump that much, but i'm not expecting so much out of "Adrian". As I said, the conditions are only favorable 1-2 days out until it runs into some dry air and slowly fades away. But, well the Western Hemisphere hasn't even begun yet, and although the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific only account for about 1/3 of worldwide development, they account for a lot of destruction and deaths(particularly the Atlantic), and the activity in the Atlantic hasn't gotten any better since 1995. The EPac and WPac will likely be below average, the Atlantic near to slightly above average, and the SHem also below average. The 1995-now AMO hasn't exactly helped us have more storms on a worldwide standard, and the Atlantic just can't make up for what we haven't had worldwide, per last year's season. Ryan1000 20:45, June 5, 2011 (UTC) :We might not be seeing Adrian from this storm, but more than likely TD one. It's at 90% chance of development! How often do you think the world can keeps its below average streak of activity up for? I was really surprised at how the SWIO season was, pretty much..nothing this year. Yqt1001 23:39, June 5, 2011 (UTC) ::Um, the storm aint forecasted to go out to sea. Dry air dpes not look too bad, wite a few mdoels show a hurricane out of this. I hope it beocmes a TD soon. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 23:46, June 5, 2011 (UTC) :::First, the Pacific and Indian oceans accound for nearly 90% of all of the activity worldwide, and the Atlantic alone isn't enough; not to say there will be nothing, but the Atlantic has been accounting for more activity than usual rescently. I would probrably expect a near-normal to above normal EPac and/or WPac season in this year... :::Second, the SWIO season normally does well during La Nina years, but since this year's SWIO season was record-dead, I fell the Atlantic hurricane season will reflect that. The 2000 Southern Hemisphere season was in a La Nina during that year, and there was a lot of activity in the southern hemisphere in that year. The SWIO had 2 very destructive, long-lived category 4 storms in that season, including Eline, which killed up to 1000 people in Mozambique and Madagascar, and later Hudah, which killed hundreds as it rampaged through both countries again. Had subtropical storms been named by then, the AHS in 2000 would have gotten up to Oscar, up till then only the second "O" name in the Atlantic, after 1995's Opal. I never thought this year's SWIO season would be so quiet following such a strong La Nina in the former Atlantic hurricane season, but I can't help that... Actually, seeing the activity in the SWIO this year, I would expect an El Nino to form at some point and kick the EPac and WPac into above-average seasons, and hinder the Atlantic somewhat. In no ways will I see a repeat of 2010, when all of the basins excep the Atlantic were dead, but thus far, things haven't exactly reflected that. It's only June, however, and only time will tell. La Nina events normally strengthen the Atlantic, SWIO, and Australian regions, and hinder the EPac, WPac, and SPac. El Nino strengthens the EPac, WPac, and SPac, and hinders the ATL, SWIO, and Australian regions. There can be exeptions to this rule, but that's usually what happens. This year had a record-dead SWIO season, a near-normal AUS region, although many of the storms were short-lived and weak, and the South Pacific was also near normal, but with Wilma, Yasi, and Atu, 3 cat. 4's. The season has just begun here though; I guess I can't really make assumptions based on what I've seen thus far. Ryan1000 01:34, June 6, 2011 (UTC) What in the world happened to 91E. It did it last nigh, too. This is so like Georgette. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 02:35, June 6, 2011 (UTC) :91E, just develop already, the water are warm, there is nothing to be afraid off. Grow, son, grow. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] ::Up to 'near 100%' now! --Patteroast 18:10, June 6, 2011 (UTC) :::AKA... Here's TD one-E. ::::Um, not yet. It is so close though. The only a small increase in organization crap. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 00:06, June 7, 2011 (UTC) :::I meant really soon, perhaps later today. I'm not so sure though; it has been struggling a little, just like 94L in the Caribbean. Ryan1000 11:02, June 7, 2011 (UTC) ::::And it's still at "near 100%!" Just a little bit more organisation and it will be TD 1E. HurricaneFiona 12:32, June 7, 2011 (UTC) :::::I'm expecting a TD at 8. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] :::91E is sure taking it's time developing, just like 94L. The thing about 91E is it is pretty weak, because gets nearly destroyed every DMIN stage of the diurnal pressure variation cycle. Yqt1001 14:15, June 7, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Depression One-E In a special TWO update the NHC has declared 91E the first tropical cyclone in the EPac season! NHC forecasts hurricane Adrian in a few days from this. Welcome to the Eastern Pacific hurrican season 2011! Yqt1001 14:40, June 7, 2011 (UTC) :Yep, there we go! The western hemisphere season has oficially begun(discounting Arani)! I would expect it to head northwest, possibly parallel Mexico and head out to sea. Adrian is coming! Ryan1000 18:05, June 7, 2011 (UTC) ::Let the game begin. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] Tropical Storm Adrian First named storm of the season! Still forecasted to become Hurricane Adrian in a few days. Yqt1001 02:47, June 8, 2011 (UTC) :There we go! The party has officially begun. Not like it'll affect land, but it's worth mentioning. Hi, Adrian! Ryan1000 02:54, June 8, 2011 (UTC) ::Well I might as well post some information. (I wanted to post about it being upgraded first, I was refreshing the NHC page constantly for 30 minutes :P) It is currently forecasted to become a category 2 hurricane before rapidly dissipating and the NHC gives it a 60% chance of rapid intensification in the next day. Will be fun to track over the next week! Yqt1001 02:58, June 8, 2011 (UTC) ::::I think it will reach 90 knts. Atomic said 70 knts and Darren said 100 knts. What does everyone else think? YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 03:25, June 8, 2011 (UTC) :::::Yeah, I'm thinking a peak around 70 - 80 kts. atomic7732 04:25, June 8, 2011 (UTC) ::::::BTW, I'm up to 105 kts. I have a feeling this one is going to explode in the next 6-12 hours. 'Darren23' | 05:24, June 8, 2011 (UTC) :::::::I'm up to 95 knts for me. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 14:03, June 8, 2011 (UTC) ::::::I'm not so sure, but hurricane Celia became a cat. 5 last year, and it was never forecast to do so. Adrian may become a major hurricane, but anywhere past 120 mph is out of the question IMO. If it does become Hurricane Adrian, the 1987 Adrian will still remain the most rescent Adrian to not become a hurricane. As a side note, there is a "Retirements at a glance" section in the Southern Hemisphere forum, though no one has really bothered to go there... Ryan1000 14:15, June 8, 2011 (UTC) Tropical storm watch for a portion of the Mexican coast. 5 mph from hurricane strength right now, looks like we will see Hurricane Adrian in 6 hours! NHC also predicts the storm getting to 110mph winds before dissipating, so looks like we will get very close to Major Hurricane Adrian if we don't get to 115mph winds. Yqt1001 14:54, June 8, 2011 (UTC) :It's heading north-northwest at only 5 mph, but it's forecast to change to WNW soon. If it manages to pick up some steam, we could have it near the Mexican coastline, or briefly make landfall. I highly doubt it will be a bad storm for Mexico, but high surf, rip currents, and heavy rain could still cause rough conditions on the Mexican coastline. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 15:28, June 8, 2011 (UTC) ::A surprising thing for me is how fast the NHC weakens it after 5 days. They're saying it would be a Post-tropical remnant low by Day 7 (168 hours). 'Darren23' | 17:31, June 8, 2011 (UTC) :::I am going with 85 knts, it does not look like it was going to strength anymore. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 20:57, June 8, 2011 (UTC) Hurricane Adrian First hurricane of the season! NHC still has it going up to nearly 110mph winds before dissipating. NHC still says rapid intensification is likely. Yqt1001 00:02, June 9, 2011 (UTC) :Party! Yay!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 00:37, June 9, 2011 (UTC) ::Best Track now has it at 70 kts/987 hPa. 'Darren23' | 00:49, June 9, 2011 (UTC) :::I am so excited with this system. I don't think this will happen, but I hope it beocmes a MH YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 02:04, June 9, 2011 (UTC) ::::NHC has Adrian at nearly 50% for category 3 strength in 24 hours. They really seem to think that this storm will explode tonight and tomorrow. Yqt1001 03:04, June 9, 2011 (UTC) :::I hope it does. These are the good storms to watch, the 'canes that head out to sea, don't affect land, and we can root on them to get as strong as possible! I'm liking Adrian's looks; it's rather impressive on the sattelites, and I wouldn't be surprised if it does intensify into the season's first MH. Ryan1000 03:23, June 9, 2011 (UTC) ::::And... winds are up to 90 mph now and the pressure plunged to 979 mbars. It's not far off from MH status, and I wouldn't be surprised if it does become one soon. However, it better get on with it; time is running out. Ryan1000 13:18, June 9, 2011 (UTC) ::::::It looks like 105 mph right now. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 13:21, June 9, 2011 (UTC) :::::That's 90 knots, not mph. The wikipedia data on Adrian says 90 knots, but the winds are only 90 mph, or 80 knots. The latest advisory might up it to that, however, and it certainly is impressive on the sattelites. Ryan1000 13:24, June 9, 2011 (UTC) ::::The eye looks really similar to Igor's eye as Igor was rapidly intensifying. In fact you put the two storms next to each other and the only thing that is different is the not quite so round shape on Adrian and more ragged rainband because of dry air on the north side of Adrian. Yqt1001 13:30, June 9, 2011 (UTC) :::It still is very well-organized, and it has a chance to become a major hurricane soon. It is inhaling some dry air on the north side of the circulation, but that may not be enough to stop it from becoming the first category 3 storm of the EPac season. There also is a brand-new storm in the WPac as well. We're getting a pretty good start if you ask me. Also, Adrian's fate may not exactly be nothing; the mid-level ridge over Mexico is expected to weaken as a trough from the Western U.S. pulls down and heads into Mexico, tearing up the ridge and possibly pulling it northward. If Adrian slows down, while the trough picks up, then the ridge will break down and pull it to the north, making a landfall in Mexico. If Adrian goes at the rate it is now, though, then it will encounter lots of shear, and die away very fast 5 days from now. Ryan1000 13:34, June 9, 2011 (UTC) :::Dry air now getting to the eastern side of Adrian now. If he keeps on doing this, :::Adrian will not achieve the major hurricane status predicted. Although this might :::happen, i still think Adrian will acheive category 2. 14:04, June 9, 2011 (UTC) Major Hurricane Adrian Eyewall is starting to collapse but it has winds of 115mph now! Won't be around for much longer, the dry air is really getting to it but hey, it's a major hurricane now! Yqt1001 15:06, June 9, 2011 (UTC) :Wohoo! First MH of the season! And yeah, it'll probrably stop there, the northern half of the eyewall has almost completely collapsed. Anyhow, it's going good! Category 3, perhaps it could hit 120 mph, but it won't last long either way. Ryan1000 16:43, June 9, 2011 (UTC) :Held at 115 mph. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] ::Hello? Is anybody home? Adrian is Cat 4 now! YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 22:53, June 9, 2011 (UTC) :Whoa, I was not expecting that! It now has the winds up to 135 mph and 950 mbars. Reminds me of Julia of last year's AHS a bit. It has an outside chance of becoming a 5, but I won't count on that. Either way, this storm is exciting! Ryan1000 22:57, June 9, 2011 (UTC) ::Wow! I was not expecting this at all either. Surprising that it is still intensifying despite dry air and cooling water, but in theory the water never stopped Julia. It's really impressive now on the satellites, it's nearly symetrical and the dry air doesn't seem to be destroying the storm as much as it was before. Even the eyewall looks good now! Yqt1001 23:10, June 9, 2011 (UTC) :::It's now up to 140 mph/946 hPa. That should certainly be its peak. 'Darren23' | 00:53, June 10, 2011 (UTC) ::Yeah, it'll probrably die down now, but it was worth watching! The intensity forecasting can be very far off from hurricanes, as Adrian and Julia showed us. You never know what tricks mother nature can pull on us. Ryan1000 02:19, June 10, 2011 (UTC) ::::Why is everyone thinking the storm peaked? It still has another good 24 hr left before it weakens because it is Annular. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 02:45, June 10, 2011 (UTC) :::::I guess anything still is possible, this storm is at 140mph winds right now anyways (I was doubting that it will reach category 3 strength not even 14 hours ago!). NHC says it still has 12-18 hours to develop and then in 24 hours it will start weakening, so anything is possible. Yqt1001 02:56, June 10, 2011 (UTC) ::::Well, the stronger, the better. I think Adrian has a shot at category 5 due to it's current strength, but it all depends. Anything is possible, but I have no idea how strong it may get to be. I hope it does get to category 5 because it won't be affecting land either way, and the EPac cat. 5's are the fun ones to watch. No threat to land, and we can root for him to get as strong as possible! Ryan1000 03:02, June 10, 2011 (UTC) :::::::I am dying for a Cat %. I JUST HAVE A FELLING IT WILL REACH IT. IF IT DID IT WOULD BE AWESOME MAN. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 04:06, June 10, 2011 (UTC) Cat 5 is pushing it! Seriously, its remarkable that it reached Category 4 intensity. I mean, yeah, with all that dry air around it, it's surprising that it has rapidly intensified to that. Considering all data, the I believe the Maximum potential intensity of the storm right now is at 130-130kts, with dry air and SST's being the main limiting factor. Adrian is close or is nearing its peak intensity because its traversing through progressively cooler waters. That being said, because this storm is exhibiting features reminiscent of an annular hurricane, it will maintain the peak intensity for quite a long time, possibly right until it passes the 26.5 degree boundary, and it could maintain its intensity for even longer than that. 'Darren23' | 04:02, June 10, 2011 (UTC) :You can't tell what it'll do, Darren. Daniel of 2006 almost became a cat. 5, and it likely would've had the ridge north of Daniel not headed back to Mexico like it did, leaving it over the weak steering currents near Hawaii. Annular hurricanes don't weaken as fast as other hurricanes if they are in unfavorable conditions, but they also happen to maintain their intensities more than strengthen. Anyhow, I hope it does reach category 5 because it is in the perfect position to do so. Out to sea, not affecting land, and just an all ya can root for storm. Matter of fact, this storm is not weakening as much as I otherwise had thought so, and Adrian controlls his own destiny as of now. Ryan1000 11:57, June 10, 2011 (UTC) ::Everyone here should be just as excited as I am. We will have another day to look at a beautiful hurricane. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 14:22, June 10, 2011 (UTC) :::Well it is starting to weaken now, so yeah I think it has hit it's peak. Although it isn't impossible for it to strengthen 25mph over the next 12 hours, it just doesn't seem too likely. But this storm was pretty awesome, it showed how unpredictable these storms are in the end and the best we can do is just hope our predictions are right. I know if I told myself 24 hours ago that this storm would become a category 4 storm I would be thinking "What!?!?!" because I was hoping for a category 3 but I didn't think even that is likely. Yqt1001 14:50, June 10, 2011 (UTC) ::Yep, it's now down to 135 mph and 948 mbars, and the weakening trend will continue for the next few days until it goes away forever. Anyhow, it was great to watch. I was stunned to see Adrian reach category 4, but 2 days ago i'd be stunned if it cracked a 3. It happens to mark the second consecutive year with a category 4 hurricane in June, not sure if that's a record, but it was great to watch either way! I'll be tracking it until it dies away. Ryan1000 15:22, June 10, 2011 (UTC) :::A very interesting first storm of the season! I hope it's a precursor to an interesting season. HurricaneFiona 21:14, June 10, 2011 (UTC) ::Down to category 3 now. It's eyewall is starting to wear away and it may die down soon, but behind Adrian, we have a small area of thunderstorms south of Central America which could become future Beatriz. The Pacific is on a roll, 4 storms as of today, June 10(Aere, Songda, Adrian, and Sarika), and lots of the season left too. The Atlantic has yet to begin, but it is not at all surprising to me that the AHS hasn't started yet; it's only June 10. Ryan1000 22:06, June 10, 2011 (UTC) :::Oh well, our eyes turn to the AOI soon. Still looks ok. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] ::Now it's eyelike structure has fallen apart; I wouldn't be surprised if Adrian now falls down to a category 2 or lower on the next advisory; the eye itself has almost completly dissapeared. It was still fun to watch though! Ryan1000 02:20, June 11, 2011 (UTC) Hurricane Adrian (sadly) Good prediction Ryan, anyways yes, it's back down to category 2 now that it's eyewall crashed on itself. Was very fun to watch, I'm adding it to my favourite storms this year list. Yqt1001 03:01, June 11, 2011 (UTC) :Yeah, Adrian was so awesome. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 04:06, June 11, 2011 (UTC) ::It was fun to watch while it lasted, but now it will (sadly) slowly die away until it's never seen again. You were a great 'cane, Adrian. Long shall you go in the Pacific hall of fame! Ryan1000 04:40, June 11, 2011 (UTC) :Now it's down to a category one, 85 mph, and it will slowly die away from here. I wouldn't be surprised if today is Adrian's last day on earth, or tomorrow, but he was such a great 'cane. Ryan1000 14:37, June 11, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm Adrian (sadly) Adrian need to go to the hospital. He has hypothermia. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 14:58, June 11, 2011 (UTC) :Poor Adrian. He was such a great storm, but now he's dying away from the disease known as wind shear and infection known as dry air. Well, he was great to watch. Today might be his last day I'll ever see this once great cane. Ryan1000 15:36, June 11, 2011 (UTC) ::How come you kept the (sadly) title on this one and not the Hurricane Adrian one!? :P Anyways, he was a wonderful storm to watch and I think he deserves a #1 or #2 spot on my favourite storms this year list. Yqt1001 15:45, June 11, 2011 (UTC) :YE put it as sadly first, but then I changed it... Oh well. Now I put both as (sadly) since he was really a great 'cane. Sarika in the WPac is gone, but it did kill 25 people and do 248 million in damage to China. Also, the NIO has their second storm as well(named ARB 01), but i'm not exactly going to put any bets on it becoming a monster, possibly a minor TS. The tropics are really kicking into gear. Adrian will likely become a TD later today and die out tonight. I might nickname him "Awesome Adrian", for my favorite storm of 2011 thus far. Ryan1000 19:26, June 11, 2011 (UTC) Last advisory issued. :( Yqt1001 14:39, June 12, 2011 (UTC) :Was great tracking you, Adrian! Ryan1000 16:06, June 12, 2011 (UTC)